STOCK DIVIDEND ANALYSIS                                                    This program calculates the                                                     intrinsic value of a stock, using                                               the method of Nicholas Molodovsky.                                                                                      The intrinsic value is the dis-                                                 counted present value of the stream                                             of dividends the shareholder                                                    expects to receive.     

INPUTS                                                                                                                  .  Current earnings per share                                                   .  Earnings growth rates                                                        .  Dividend payout rates                                                        .  Discount rates                                                               .  Either                                                                          .  Long term growth rate                                                        .  Price/earnings ratio forecast  

OUTPUTS                                                                         To make the intrinsic value equal                                               to the current market price, the                                                program calculates the following:                                               .  The length of time a growth rate        must persist                                                                 .  The earnings ratio that must be         achieved                                                                                                             This is a modification of NICKMOL,      by D. Downes, Amos Tuck School          of Business.    

Calculation wanted:                                                             (1) Intrinsic value                     (2) Required duration of                    specific growth rate                (3) Required future                         price/earnings ratio   ?1                                                   Current market price   ($) ?302                                                 Current earnings/share ($) ?6.85                                                Normalized earnings                     this period            ($) ?7                                                   Long term discount rate(%) ?16                                                  Long term dividend                      payout ratio           (%) ?40 

Forecast wanted                                                                 (1) Long term growth rate               (2) Price/earnings ratio at                 future point in time   ?1                                                   Long term growth rate                    (percent)                 ?5                                                   Current year (e.g. 1969)   ?1976   

Do you want to forecast from 1977?Y 

 
Earnings growth rate                    (percent)                  ?25                                                  Duration of growth rate                 (years)                    ?10                                                  Dividend payout ratio                   (percent)                  ?40                                                  Discount rate (percent)    ?16                                                  Type of adjustment                      (1) Straight line                       (2) Fast line                           (3) Slow                   ?3  

Duration of adjustment                  (years)                    ?5                                                   Dividend payout ratio for               this adjustment period     ?40          (percent)                                                                       Discount rate for this     ?16          adjustment period                       (percent)  

Do you want to continue forecasting     from 1992?N          

1976 Values                                                                     Price              $  302.00            Earnings           $    6.85            P/E ratio              44.09                                                    Long term growth rate    5.00%                                                  Intrinsic value    $  138.43       

YEAR  EARN. GROWTH VALUE  INTR.VALUE           PER   RATE  /EARN.  (AT BEG.           SHARE  (%)   RATIO   OF YEAR)                                             1977    8.75 25.00  15.82     138.43    1978   10.94 25.00  14.36     157.08    1979   13.67 25.00  13.01     177.83    1980   17.09 25.00  11.75     200.82    1981   21.36 25.00  10.58     226.11    1982   26.70 25.00   9.50     253.74    1983   33.38 25.00   8.50     283.66    1984   41.72 25.00   7.57     315.70    1985   52.15 25.00   6.70     349.52    1986   65.19 25.00   5.90     384.58    1987   80.87 24.00   5.19     420.04    1988   98.78 22.00   4.61     454.89    1989  117.83 19.00   4.14     488.17    1990  136.06 15.00   3.82     519.14    1991  150.64 11.00   3.64     547.78                                            There are additional results--  

                                          YEAR  EARN. GROWTH VALUE  INTR.VALUE           PER   RATE  /EARN.  (AT BEG.           SHARE  (%)   RATIO   OF YEAR)                                             1992  158.17  5.00   3.64     575.17  

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       